"You may delay, but time will not” – Benjamin Franklin

No new supply! That seems to be the cry of government and the opinion of some regarding Metro Vancouver real estate. Let’s talk about what effect this actually has on the market when supply isn’t part of the equation in dealing with the dynamics of our housing market, because affordability definitely isn’t one of the benefits of no new supply. Similar to how the real estate market was acting in the fall, this month multiple offers were happening in the market, except at a much higher occurrence. In fact, there was an apartment in Yaletown that generated 18 offers at the start of February. It’s become the norm not the exception so far in 2020 and to no surprise for those tracking market activity. With apartments and townhouses seeing the bulk of these, it is now creeping into the detached housing market – especially below $1.5M. And why? Supply. There isn’t enough. The number of homes...

“You must be in tune with the times and prepared to break with tradition.” – James Agee

Happy New Year! All the best for a successful 2020 ahead!

In the immortal words of John Lennon – “another year over, and a new one just begun… Let’s hope it’s a good one.” For the third straight year, real estate sales in Metro Vancouver suffered through a collection of government policies aimed at achieving affordability and stability in the market, but achieving neither – in fact, making it worse. Demand has been artificially held in check leading to the start of what is typical in a real estate market, a significant increase in people wanting to make a move into or within the real estate market. And with December sales up 87 per cent compared to the same month last year, it became clear that buyers are engaging.

Attached are the year-end 2019 Sales and Listings Stats in Greater Vancouver. There were 25,681 home sales in Greater Vancouver...

"You are the sky, everything else is just the weather.” – Pema Chodron 

Is this an early present for the Greater Vancouver real estate market? With a continuing free fall in the number of active listings and the number of home sales continuing to be on the rise, perhaps the Grinch hasn’t actually stolen all the thunder from real estate in Greater Vancouver. Attached are the Sales and Listings Statistics updated to the end of November 2019. It has become quite clear over the last five months – buyers are entering the market more so than we’ve seen in the past two years, while many sellers are content to hold on to their homes and not list for sale. Perhaps taxation policies aren’t the answer to affordability in the housing market?

There were 2,546 homes sold of all types in Greater Vancouver in November this year compared with 2,892 homes sold last month, 1,633 sales in November last year and 2,831 homes sold in...

"People who throw mud lose ground” – Jim Beatty 

Average is the new up! And above average could be the start of a new trend in Greater Vancouver real estate. Attached are the Sales and Listings Statistics updated to the end of October 2019. This October in the Greater Vancouver real estate market saw a significant increase in the amount of sales compared to October of last year. Buyers are clearly engaging; some home sellers are still reluctant to sell at today’s prices or are simply not engaging at all and the opportunities seen for buyers earlier in the year are diminishing. And with CMHC coming out recently and saying, “The Metro Vancouver Housing Market will see higher sales and modest price increases over the next two years. Resale activity and house prices are expected to fully recover from the recent decline.” The question of “When will we hit the bottom of the market” looks to have been answered with...

“The World doesn’t celebrate your similarity but your difference.” — Bernard Kelvin Clive

Sales and listings stats are attached as of September 14, 2019. So far in September sales per day in Greater Vancouver are ahead of August of this year and significantly ahead of September 2018. The typical trend is to see sales in September decrease from the amount of sales in August. This month we are likely to see that change. New listings so far in September while above that of August are 13 per cent below the number at mid month in September 2018.  So, while sales are on the increase, new listings are going in the opposite direction and creating more pressure on new listings with the results being multiple offers, albeit with a cautious tone to them. The effect on prices is too early to tell, but this could likely be creating the bottom of the market many have been looking for.

Here is a summary of the activity so far:

Greater Vancouver –1,013...

"Be You. Bravely and unapologetically” – Anonymous 

Attached are the Sales and Listings Stats updated to the end of August 2019. Considering August is traditionally one of the slower months for real estate sales, this August was more active than anticipated. On the supply side, the number of new listings and active listings were down – showing buyers are engaging more than they have and sellers are willing to hold on to their properties. Once again, there is a noticeable increase in demand for homes in August, similar to July, with anecdotal reports of multiple offers and properties that have been on the market for a number of months getting activity and offers. Prices have already come down (despite reports that they are just starting to come down) which has piqued the interest of buyers and allowed some buyers priced out by the mortgage stress test, to come back in to the market.

There were 2,256 homes sold of all types in Greater Vancouver in August this...

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.” – Peter Drucker.

Sales and listings stats are attached as of July 21, 2019. I remember a comment from this very analyst that writes these updates that sales were showing signs of increasing and total active listings were struggling to stay above 15,000 homes. Sales for July are so far tracking at about 15 per cent above the levels of last July at this time, with new listings down 9 per cent and active listings falling. We are likely to see sales in Greater Vancouver finish July at 2,500 homes sold which would be 19 per cent above the number of sales in June. Vancouver’s West Side is showing some of the better numbers for far, with detached home sales at the same level as June already. Active listings are down to 15,385 after peaking at 15,770 at the end of June. The federal government reduced the stress test rate to 5.19 per cent, down from 5.34 per cent. While not a significant amount, a sign that rates...

Sales and listings stats are attached as of June 15, 2019. The debate continues on what was driving the market and who’s really in all those homes out there. What we do know is supply is continuing to be an issue in the current market with less listings coming on market so far in June than the midpoint of May this year (down 17%) and June last year (down 20%). It would appear we are looking at the peak of Active Listings for the spring market as we’ll be seeing less new listings come out during the summer months. The incidents of multiple offers are increasing as buyers are seeing that new listings priced in today’s market are moving quicker than they have in the last year.  While sales will be below the 10 year average for June, likely to finish at about 2,100 homes sold, the number of new listings are likely to be at 5,000 which would be 12 per cent below the 10 year average for the month of June and close to the lows for the month of June in 2002 and 2003 prior...

Not much is changing in the market in relation to sales numbers, we are seeing total number of homes sold consistently below 2,000 since July of 2018. But on a positive note, it was the 4 straight increase months over month. Rome wasn’t built in a day nor is the Greater Vancouver housing market. The pent-up demand continues to build as a result. There were 1,850 sales in Greater Vancouver in March 2019, the lowest total for the month of April since 1995. The standoff continues between buyers and sellers as both sides are waiting for the other to blink. Increasingly sellers are starting to blink first as buyers are being very selective on what they are willing to offer on and jumping on properties that are priced well in today’s market. An opportunity that has been long sought after from buyers in Metro Vancouver.

The 1,850 homes sold in Greater Vancouver in April were up from 1,745 (6%) from March this year. This was compared with 2,631 sales (down 30%) in April last year and...